Proof of negative is impossible


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送交者: kma 于 2021-08-28, 11:32:05:

回答: 外交部和俄精老胡抹黑德堡严格来讲阴谋论都不算,是喜剧,更是闹剧 由 jhuang 于 2021-08-27, 21:28:54:

What us demand China now is like it

Wuhan is the first confirmed epicenter, wiv is the biggest coronavirus research center. Yet that is far from enough to seriously accuse China of lab leak.

The biggest smoking gun of course is virus strain with the same sequence. Obviously us didn’t,t find it. Even if otherwise, it is only the first step of seriously investigating lab leak. You need the patient zero, most likely some1 in Wiv, then how it spread around. So far nothing, said 3 wiv people flu like symptom, who were those? Nothing. Even if, it is flu season, so what?

In this political environment, there is no way of investigation. China denied everything. Offered limited cooperation with who. But in us eyes, never would be enough. Until positive evidence emerged. No patients? You are hiding. No strains? You are hiding. No lab record? You are hiding. One can never prove negative.

Similar about China accusing US. Not that ridiculous to compare. No local spread? Simply hard to detect early. Or original strain mild, then mutate into more virulent wuhan one. Ok, all just fantasies, no evidence whatsoever. Yet using same logic, we can simply say us is hiding. Let who investigate the Maryland lab, nothing founded? You are hiding. Same logic.

Proof of origin is already quite mission impossible. Just check all pandemic study history. But scientific community has good and enough information to surmise natural pathway is always the most likely source, so did covid. The joint study by China and who said similar thing. Lab leak is always 2nd. Until one exhaust all efforts on the 1st pathway, lab leak should not be emphasized.

What happened after the joint study? What made who change mind dramatically? Why suddenly west media embraced trump accusations all? There are no new evidence, whatever mentioned mostly already in trump times, even after this 90 days stuff.
Nothingbut politics. Orlic, the most outspoken one on wiv leak, who likes to mix with scientists, yet is just a political figure, admitted lab leak wouldnot only destroy China,s international image, but maybe also xi. This kind of efforts surely will get no where. Not help world to defend against next pandemic, which is a sure thing, and current one shows no sign of abating yet.

It is so sad. Covid suppose should he’ll world to unite, how many times we hear covid doesn’t,t care which nation, which race, we are all together. All just lip service.
In fact it is worse, after sars, China and west have starting to cooperate , that was how wiv coronavirus efforts started, how nih got involved. How us set up monitors in China. Now all gone. So sad.


We should do better. Ex cdc head Frieden , and one reporters in npr said similarly, said we should be more focused on future, we don,t need more to realize that both natural and lab pathways are caution and lessons to be learned. We already know the answers to future remedies:

keep wild lives separate from humans, give them more space. Minimize contact.

Lab accidents are real things. Shi admitted to scientific American she deeply scared when hearing the outbreak when she was attending meeting in Shanghai. And how relieved she checked database later. And zhong directly confronted her are you sure? It is highly irresponsible to study dangerous stuff in a place like wuhan, hopefully all such kind of study would be shut down. At least move to place like qinghari or gansu .

And what about bio weapons? I said hopefully after covid big powers all learn the lesson that it is a non starter, making no military sense at all. Typical killing enemy 1000 losing own 800. Doesn’t,t make any sense. Hope to set up a U.N. thing like iaea to check bio weapons in China, us, Russia, et c.

Yet base on Current situations, all are just pipe dreams. So sad. For god sake,we are not 100 200 years ago, we saw all the tragedies in 20th century. Why are we behaving like we are doing right now ?




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