送交者: 百年树人 于 2008-01-06, 11:43:33:
回答: 除去开篇的场面废话,第一句就有问题了。作者真的算过吗(无论多么 由 mangolasi 于 2008-01-06, 00:20:15:
The TFR is a synthetic rate, not something that is actually counted. It is not based on the fertility of any real group of women, since this would involve waiting until they had completed childbearing. Nor is it based on counting up the total number of children actually born over their lifetime, but instead is based on the age-specific fertility rates of women in their "child-bearing years," which in conventional international statistical usage is ages 15-44 or 15-49.
The TFR is therefore a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman who passes through her reproductive life subject to all the age-specific fertility rates for ages 15-49 that were recorded for a given population in a given year. The TFR represents the average number of children a woman would have were she to fast-forward through all her childbearing years in a single year, under all the age-specific fertility rates for that year. In other words, this rate is the number of children a woman would have if she was subject to prevailing fertility rates at all ages from a single given year, and survives throughout all her childbearing years.